Hello, and acquire to maybe a longest post on TC. In box we missed in, Part 1 of this exercise, where altogether strategy, a laconic inventory of moves, and some projections for a 2018 sim-Braves were set out, we can entrance it right here. we cruise it’s useful to review that one before this post, given it provides a horizon for a particular moves analyzed here.
Alright, now that you’ve (maybe) review Part 1, let’s get into what everybody unequivocally cares about: examining a particular moves themselves. Of course, particular pierce research isn’t unequivocally utterly a whole purpose of a exercise, given a suspicion is to build a team and not make a collection of manifold moves, nonetheless this is still presumably a many discerning proceed to go about a process.
Options picked adult on Flowers ($4M), Dickey ($8M)
These are a integrate of no-brainers. we attempted to give sim-Dickey and his member a choice to retire and/or ask that we decrease his choice so that he could play somewhere closer to his sim-home in sim-Nashville, nonetheless that didn’t happen. Not many some-more to contend here, solely that Flowers continues to stir notwithstanding some very, unequivocally low expectations for him when he was initial sealed a few years ago, and Dickey isn’t unequivocally many of a problem, or many of a arguable solution, during $8 million.
RHP Tommy Hunter sealed to a $10 million, 2-year deal
The reliever marketplace will always be one of those things where a speculation and a expectancy strife in sincerely ungainly ways. Relievers are flighty and unequivocally wily to forecast, and on tip of that, they’re one place where there’s a hiatus between group WAR and group performance, given a unequivocally good bullpen can make a given group some-more expected to win tighten games and surpass a run differential. That’s not indispensably given there’s a feeding frenzy during a tip finish of a reliever market, nonetheless it could be a factor. Towards a center or bottom of a market, though, we fundamentally have a garland of unknowns or lemons, and you’re anticipating that they presumably representation good in a evident destiny for we if you’re a good team, or representation good adequate to get a crazy deadline return, if you’re not a good team.
Tommy Hunter is a longtime vital joining maestro who worked radically as a starter with a Rangers until being acquired by a Orioles and creation a transition to relief. He’s had some success, and some failures. He was unequivocally good as a half-time starter in his initial full deteriorate (2009, 1.7 fWAR in 112 innings), nonetheless didn’t unequivocally replicate or urge on that as a revolution member. His initial twin seasons of service (2013, 2014) were also utterly good (0.7 fWAR in each), nonetheless he didn’t utterly replicate that turn of efficacy in a following seasons, bouncing around from a Orioles to a Cubs, to a Indians, and afterwards behind to a Orioles. The Orioles and Indians both cut him in 2016 notwithstanding ideally cromulent center service work, and he assimilated a Rays, where he had his best service season: 1.2 fWAR, 3.07 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, 2.61 ERA, and a strikeout rate scarcely double his career normal (28.1% contra 15.9%).
Can he replicate that success in 2018 and 2019? Who knows. He is a reliever, after all. But $10M/2 isn’t a vast commitment, and it meets a twin goals of being uncommonly tradeable if a Braves are not in contention, and being market-rate reasonable even if they are, unless he unequivocally heavily regresses. The large thing for Hunter that creates him opposite than “sign a reliever entrance off a good year” is that he totally altered his proceed in 2017, some-more than halfing his rate of four-seam fastballs and replacing them with cutters and his slurve-type pitch. He hasn’t unequivocally had crew splits as a reliever, so there’s not a outrageous worry about vouchsafing him face lefties in medium-leverage situations either. There’s also no reason given he can’t offer in, or slip into, a closer purpose if need be.
There was no finagling for this deal; Hunter ostensible a initial offer as listed.
Siegeface: Much like appropriation Sean Rodriguez final year, this will expected be a one pierce in a sim that comes to delight in a tangible 2018 offseason for a Braves. This group has put a reward on maestro care among a pitching corps in past seasons, nonetheless wisely it seems this regime (whoever they competence be) is realizing a significance of fortitude in a bullpen this year, rather than patience adult a immature nonetheless earnest rotation. Tommy Hunter isn’t anything special, nonetheless a right handed options a Braves devoted a many down a widen was a brew of Arodys Vizcaino and Dan Winkler. Due to a accumulation of factors, mostly revolving around a health of elbows, that’s not unequivocally a many arguable span in a business (to contend a least). Hunter’s entrance off his best deteriorate as a full time service option, in that he posted a career best 11.5% overhanging strike rate to span with a re-emergence of a infamous 94 MPH cutter. Pair that with a .234 xwOBA (7th among all relievers in 2017), and we can start to even see some upside in his run impediment skills (.288 xwOBA on balls in play, .259 BABIP, 11.8% HR/FB in 2017) repeating in 2018 (2.61/3.07/3.29 ERA/FIP/xFIP triple condense in 2017). Sometimes it’s good to be predictable, and if a Braves acquire Tommy Hunter I’ll positively be happy that they are.
BravesRays: Tommy Hunter in 2017 looked to me like another Rays pitching success story in a capillary of JP Howell or Fernando Rodney. As Ivan and Siegeface indicate out, Hunter finished some genuine changes in his proceed by throwing his knife harder and some-more often. He also worked his four-seamer adult in a strike section some-more consistently. Hickey himself expected that Tommy Hunter would be many softened formed on some of a changes that he’d made. we suspicion Hunter was a Rays’ best reliever in 2017, and that includes Alex Colome, who was traded for a king’s release in a sim. Also, his nickname is Tommy Two Towels (presumably given he sweats a lot on a mound), so that’s fun.
LHP Sam Freeman traded to Cleveland Indians for C Yan Gomes
Sam Freeman was a unequivocally renouned target, that strikes me as half-odd given positively any group has seen their possess chronicle of The Cautionary Tale of Ian Krol in new history. Sam Freeman did have 60 unequivocally good innings final year, nonetheless his ERA → FIP → xFIP advise regression, and he had 116 innings before that in that he was a flattering ubiquitous AAAA-type arm. He’s also not utterly a arrange of male we wish to leave in there opposite righties (4.47 xFIP), that means his aspect stats are rather dubious per his going-forward usability.
For what it’s worth, though, it’s not like a offers we were removing were floating us away. From my memory, it was mostly 25th-man form options (Zack Granite from a Twins stands out as one offer, and there competence have been others nonetheless 0 that went into “this male will unequivocally make your roster” territory.)
A bit later, a Indians were seeking to pierce on from one of their twin catchers to make room for highly-touted awaiting Francisco Mejia. Faced with a choice of Roberto Perez (no bat, good defense, good framing, unequivocally inexpensive contract) or Yan Gomes (better bat notwithstanding catastrophic 2016, worse during framing and invulnerability nonetheless decent defensively and normal during framing, rather some-more costly contract), we opted for Gomes, meditative that Perez’ bat was roughly non-rosterable (82 career wRC+, 57 and 75 a final twin years).
Gomes has had a unequivocally bizarre career. He’s a initial Brazilian-born actor in MLB history, and finished a outrageous MLB dash after being acquired by a Indians, putting adult 7.7 fWAR in his initial twin “full” seasons of play. Even before his chosen 2014 campaign, he sealed a inexpensive prolongation with a Indians, that afterwards finished adult being a churned bag given his 2015 (74 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR) and 2016 (32 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR) were utterly poor. He did rebound behind rather in 2017, putting adult an 87 career wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR in 383 PAs. Given that he’s not a defensive or framing guilt and has recently demonstrated an ability to strike morally (wRC+ around a 90s), he seems to fit as a backup catcher. we cruise that even if he starts, he substantially won’t be a below-average catcher, all-told, and a fly-ball-oriented proceed is a good thing these days. Gomes usually costs $6M in 2018 and $7M in 2019; a Braves can sale him after that with a $1M buyout, or compensate him rather some-more with a array of bar options.
As a minor, nonetheless cool, thing, Yan Gomes and Luiz Gohara give a Braves a event for a initial Brazilian battery in MLB. This didn’t unequivocally have anything to do with a procedure for a move, nonetheless hey, neat. (And if this were real, we could contend there was a tiny, extrinsic outcome on talent merger from Brazil as a result, a la Andruw Jones and Curacao. But, this would need to be real, and a Braves would need to be good, for this to matter. No one cares about bad group trivia, really.)
The Flowers-Gomes tandem should be flattering good in 2018. Not as good as best-in-baseball-Flowers-and-Suzuki-Monster-Truck-Rally-Mode, nonetheless flattering good. At slightest average, before framing is taken into account, is my guess, with room for more. Both contracts and players are uncommonly tradable if a improved event comes along during any point, as well.
Siegeface: we cruise we all favourite Sam Freeman final year. He was a dumpster dive merger that finished adult being a go-to-lefty for a rather poignant apportionment of a 2017 season. That competence contend some-more about how badly Ian Krol crashed and burned, or a mind boggling insistence to keep giving Eric O’Flaherty innings in a Braves uniform, nonetheless it shouldn’t lessen a amenity of a warn that is Sam Freeman. However, we cruise we all prioritized relocating Sam Freeman in a sim given of not usually how badly burnt a Braves were by Krol in 2017, nonetheless how they weren’t burnt by Hunter Cervenka or Dario Alvarez in 2016. We felt that in new experience, a preference to strike while a iron was prohibited on an overperforming Braves lefty (especially when they didn’t have any emergence of a lane record) was decidedly a right call. Yan Gomes, in annoy of his attack woes, is during a unequivocally slightest a high peculiarity glove-first backup catcher. It was too many value to pass adult on a male that, with unchanging innings, could expected be a league-average starting catcher with a flattering good agreement to work with. He’s not going to get that event with Tyler Flowers in a fold, nonetheless we felt he was an ascent over Kurt Suzuki and could unequivocally stabilise a 2019-2021 seasons if a Braves throwing awaiting doesn’t emerge. Low-key, one of a best moves
Ivan we finished in a sim this year.
RHP Sergio Romo sealed to a $3M, 1-year deal
I take 0 credit for this one; we cruise BravesRays suggested it and we was like, “Sure, given not?” after saying that Romo resurrected his career in Tampa Bay after a Dodgers bailed on him (DFA, traded to a Rays for a PTBNL or income considerations) in late July. Romo pitched over 30 innings in those twin months and put adult a stimulating 2.96 FIP notwithstanding an xFIP of 4.20, that was even worse than a symbol that got him outcast from a Dodgers progressing in a season. While a xFIP is a concern, a joining is low and scarcely inconsequential.
Romo indeed has a lot of warning signs, including disappearing velocity, and a representation brew expansion that’s tough to spike down as being “good” or “not so good.” He found larger success in Tampa Bay by throwing some-more fastballs as opposite to some-more sliders, and blending in a changeup a bit more. Still, he’s flattering many a ROOGY-type that we can go to for a strikeout, generally when a hostile beat struggles with violation pitches.
BravesRays: Most of Ivan’s reservations about Romo are valid, nonetheless he’s a plain ROOGY who still has a good “no dot” slider. Romo’s slider is a fun representation to speak about, as distinct many sliders, it’s spinning seams don’t emanate a dot manifest to a hitter. Used properly, he’s a good abyss square in a bullpen. Most of his problems with a Dodgers came from an intensely high HR/FB rate, that topsy-turvy itself to a low one with a Rays.
With Gomes in a fold, catchers were finished available. The offers for both Flowers and Suzuki were kinda lowballed, with teams wanting them as backups, and usually peaceful to compensate ubiquitous backup prices, that led to stalled discussions.
The Rockies altered that by charity Tapia. we don’t know many about Tapia, nonetheless he’s well-pedigreed and team-controlled. He’s a lefty that we cruise will onslaught with lefties, nonetheless anticipating a right-handed-hitting fetter in a dilemma outfield mark isn’t a outrageous issue. Plus, during this point, we still had Markakis and Kemp on a roster. Tapa didn’t strike good final year, nonetheless a outrageous cube of his issues were an inability to make strike opposite lefties. With his bearing to southpaws limited, and his speed (which is ostensible to be decent) giving him defensive value during a responsibility of several leadfoots that teams start in left margin (like Matt Kemp), we cruise there’s a decent low-end outcome. Of course, he could be terrible. But so could any other immature player.
As we indicated, we don’t have many specific feelings on Tapia. The sum awaiting rankings advise that he could unequivocally good be an normal regular. That’s a outrageous discount for one (cheap) year of Kurt Suzuki. John Sickels gave him a B/B+ before final year, that is unequivocally a backend tip 100 male in many respects; we trust he was also right around there from Eric Longehagen’s rankings.
Another unequivocally critical thing about Tapia is that he indeed had a 110 wRC+ in a initial half final year, before his already-low travel rate cratered to an inconceivable 1.5% in a second half. Now, a 110 wRC+ was propped adult by a near-.400 BABIP, so he’s not a finished product, and he competence never unequivocally be playable as a starter or crew partner.
Old crony Mike Dunn, who we sealed in final year’s sim, was indeed a genuine procedure for a Rockies in this deal, as they wanted to pierce some income as partial of a catcher-acquisition process.Dunn is due $7M in any of a subsequent twin years, that is kind of an overpay deliberation he’s not that good, nonetheless hey, relievers. Dunn had twin hapless things operative opposite him final year: he was a fly turn pitcher in a juiced turn era, pitching his home games during Coors Field; and, his ability to vacate lefties unequivocally went a proceed of a dodo.If it comes back, carrying him to span with A.J. Minter is an item in a home park that creates lefties a home run threat; if it doesn’t, he’s an costly center reliever that provides some extrinsic advantage over a innings consume stylings of Luke Jackson, et alia.
Overall, this pierce remade a throwing logjam and an additional $3.5M of income shake room into a ubiquitous center reliever and a position actor with a lot of group control nonetheless unequivocally genuine prospect/development/can’t strike lefties/etc. risk. There’s unequivocally no downside here, not in a proceed that matters. And if Tapia ever creates good on a forms of 55 FV grades he gets here and there? The Braves have fundamentally bound left margin for a future, and all it took was offering high on Kurt Suzuki (who’ll make Coors his personal stomping belligerent if he carries over his 2017 success and approach, by a way).
Rajah: Tapia has above normal speed and an above normal arm. He has a collection to play in CF, nonetheless he was sincerely late in putting some-more concentration on a finer points of defense, so he competence be a late bloomer there. He has always strike good via a minors, nonetheless he has an peculiar two-strike approach. He’s an emasculate basestealer, so he has room to learn how to use his speed better. Getting him during a low cost and putting him in a crew where he gets event nonetheless being a pivotal piece, and where there’s some coherence to let him acquire some-more or reduction time, is a win-win. If 0 else he becomes an engaging fourth outfielder.
Siegeface: Really easy call here. Suzuki was unessential even before we got Yan Gomes, and we were even fielding calls on Tyler Flowers. But Raimel Tapia was by distant a best offer we got on presumably Suzuki or Flowers. We had on sum a 50 FV tab placed on Tapia, who is MLB prepared and fills presumably a fourth OF spot, a complicated side of a LF platoon, or a full-time starting gig in a corner. We indeed had a choice of picking adult Mike Dunn or Adam Ottavino’s agreement in a deal, and we finished adult selecting Dunn given he was left handed and we indispensable a lefty. In a vacuum, we like Ottavino some-more given he’s been a rarely successful MLB service choice in a past, nonetheless a Rockies unequivocally backloaded his agreement to a indicate where he and Dunn make a same volume of income in 2018 ($7MM). Dunn does have an additional year during $7MM in 2019, that will roughly positively be a drain. But we felt we could take a strike and a significance of removing a second lefty still reigned supreme.
BravesRays: Like Ivan, I’m not sole on Tapia’s ability to be an bland OFer. He doesn’t strike many fly balls, something that substantially worked opposite him personification in Colorado. He also chases pitches out of a section too much. Still, he should yield value as a baserunner and as a defender, nonetheless he needs to urge his image fortify and cut down on a strikeouts.
“OF” Matt Kemp, RHP Kyle Muller, and RHP Freddy Tarnok traded to a Chicago White Sox for RHP Matt Cooper
The income dump that unequivocally finished this sim for a Braves needs not that many discussion. Trading for Matt Kemp was a flattering clear-as-day mistake when a Braves finished it notwithstanding arguments to a contrary, and mixed hours opposite mixed GM sims have now been spent on perplexing to dump his deal.
Luckily, blessedly, a White Sox were here to oblige. The cost could have been higher, nonetheless nonetheless anything to unequivocally spend a income on (weak giveaway representative class, extensions not authorised in a horizon of a sim), there was no genuine indicate to pierce high-caliber prospects for income relief. The White Sox started with a some-more assertive offer (think a tip 10 and a tip 20 prospect, consummate of Alex Jackson or William Contreras), nonetheless we figured we’d reorient it to radically guys around #20 and subsequent on a village awaiting list. They came behind with Muller and Tarnok, and we scrambled to press a self-evident “accept trade” button.
As a replacement-level producer, Matt Kemp is radically wholly underwater on his deal, definition it’s about $38 million in disastrous over-abundance value. Are Tarnok and Muller value $38 million in over-abundance value themselves? Absolutely not. we cruise that creates this a coup.
The humorous story about Matt Cooper is that we don’t unequivocally have anything to contend about him, and have no suspicion who he is. He makes… barrels? That sounds right. Discussing a parameters of a deal, a lapse (of course) never came up. When we resolved on a deal, it was usually “Matt Kemp, Freddy Tarnok, and Kyle Muller.” Not “for XYZ.” Just those 3 names. That, of course, struck me as odd: we can’t make trades in MLB that have literally no return. But, we didn’t wish to indicate out this out, lest that seem overly pedantic/annoying, and harm a good fortune.
Luckily for us, a White Sox sim-GM felt a same way, and revised it, easing both my suggestion and a whinging aspect of my mind that was going “technically not a authorised trade!” Phew. we still don’t know anything about Matt Cooper.
Rajah: Tarnok and Muller, if they were to any strike their ceilings, could be #2 SPs, nonetheless they’re unequivocally distant divided and risky. It was a good cost to compensate for transfer Kemp’s contract, as some-more than expected a White Sox finish adult with tiny or no MLB value from those 2.
Siegeface: What some-more needs to be said? Matt Kemp is a $40MM empty on a Braves right now, and a White Sox were peaceful to take on that agreement for a payoff of appropriation twin high roof right-handed starters that are light years divided (and lift a common risk that comes with being light years away). In a sim, a ability to giveaway adult a passed agreement isn’t unusually useful for a priorities, given we can’t use a income to offer extensions to players on your team. But twin 45 FV pitchers don’t unequivocally come tighten to $40MM in over-abundance value, so this is a no-brainer even with a limitations.
This is how this review went, with some embellishment:
Astros: “Hey, we wish Ian Krol”
Braves, internally: “Wait, we still have Ian Krol? we speculation he was kicked to a quell after a deteriorate ended, so we do?”
Also Braves, internally: “Hahaha someone wants Ian Krol?”
Braves: “You can have him. Make it so.”
The name Devon Carr was never discussed or resolved upon. For all we know, Devon Carr is a 1994 Geo Metro with a baby blue paint pursuit whom a owners named “Devon.” (Siegeface: we indeed design “Devon Carr” as a name of a AMC Gremlin Hans Moleman roughly drives into a tree, afterwards usually casually combusts. What a good Treehouse of Horror story that was.) Just suppose sim-Devon Carr display adult to teenager joining Spring Training subsequent year, and he’s not on any of a clipboard or iPad or whatever-they-use rosters. “I’m sorry, sir, we can’t take a field, your tire treads will disaster adult a grass.”
Let it be famous that in a GM sim, Yonder Alonso went unsigned, nonetheless someone wanted Ian Krol. We’re by a looking glass, people.
OF Nick Markakis traded to a Houston Astros for RHP Mike Fiers
There wasn’t unequivocally a outrageous need to do this deal, nonetheless Markakis was radically unessential with a lefty-hitting Tapia now on a roster, and it’s not like he hits or fields or does anything so good that we unequivocally wish him to turn out some kind of pointy corner.
There’s not many to Mike Fiers; we cruise he could have been non-tendered and a understanding would usually go off as a loyal income dump. As is, with him tendered for about $5M, a understanding usually saves about half of a Markakis’ salary. But with Kemp no longer in a picture, payroll space is indeed not a outrageous emanate for this sim-Braves iteration. Fiers himself has been unequivocally inconsistent. He destitute onto a theatre with a unusual rookie debate in 2012, nonetheless 2013 saw him ineffectual in a swingman role; he missed many of a deteriorate with injury. He came behind in late 2014 and finished 8 starts to tighten out a year, that were some of a many widespread he’s ever had. That was followed adult by twin normal seasons opposite a Brewers and Astros, before he sunk to a replacement-level opening final year.
Part of Fiers’ change was changeable to some-more of a sinker approach, in lieu of his prior fastball-cutter paradigm. For several reasons too minute to get into here, I’m not certain that was a right suspicion for him, nonetheless a Astros roughly positively know improved than me, given their importance on biomechanics and a like, so it’s probable that Fiers is usually kind of finished being useful. Either way, we prognosticate a fifth starter uphold or swingman purpose for him subsequent year. While Fiers competence be tantalizing as a “fireman” form who can go mixed innings with things personification adult in shorter stints, he’s not unequivocally a good fit for this purpose given he doesn’t chuck unequivocally tough and is unequivocally some-more of a kitchen penetrate / bamboozle-type pitcher. He’s also kind of over-abundance with Sergio Romo in some ways, nonetheless misfortune case, he usually gets non-tendered or traded for unequivocally little.
Overall, this pierce was about income and register space, and not Mike Fiers. That was substantially obvious, nonetheless usually in box it wasn’t, I’m not creation any claims that Fiers is a “get” here.
Siegeface: Nick Markakis is an unessential 1 fWAR outfielder that’s due $11MM. Mike Fiers is an unessential 1 fWAR pitcher that will substantially be due many reduction than $11MM in arbitration. Basic maths, people.
BravesRays: Think of Mike Fiers as a $1 million word routine on a health of some of a immature arms. The Braves can non-tender him as late as Mar 15th and still usually compensate about $1 million value of his 2018 settlement salary. If everybody stays healthy in camp, afterwards there’s substantially not many need for him.
IF Jace Peterson and IF/OF Danny Santana non-tendered; contracts tendered for remaining arbitration-eligible players, including 1B Matt Adams.
The genuine emanate here is that we weren’t means to unpack Matt Adams for anything, in a end. we fear a Braves competence have a same problem, for real. All of a deals to unpack Adams wanted someone to compensate us for a privilege, that usually wasn’t going to happen. Mike Foltynewicz and Daniel Winkler are no-brainers to hang around; Jace Peterson has run out of chances, in my mind, and Danny Santana should have never happened.
Siegeface: we don’t unequivocally have anything to contend about a settlement process, so here’s a good clip from a initial partial of The Mighty Boosh.
SS Kevin Maitan and LHP Joey Wentz traded to a Mariners for 3B Kyle Seager and RHP Tony Zych.
The expansion of this pierce was wacky. As we indicated in Part 1, this was unequivocally a centerpiece of everything, and a many critical move, and yet… it happened so distant down a line, temporally. As we indicated, it was a initial pierce we made, and agreement was reached, in theory, flattering quickly.
The ubiquitous pivot of a understanding was always Maitan for Seager. The Mariners asked for Maitan and Wentz; we finished a initial avoid of waffling on Wentz given his high ranking on a village awaiting list, nonetheless rajah finished a unequivocally convincing box that Wentz was a good male to pierce if a Mariners were indeed targeting him specifically. For a prolonged time, a understanding sat during Maitan and Wentz for Seager, $15 million, and Tony Zych, that we was unequivocally happy with. The Mariners did not wish a refuge 3B like Rio Ruiz or Johan Camargo from a Braves as partial of a deal.
Zych is kind of a non-entity in a grand intrigue of a deal, so we won’t contend many about him. He was a unequivocally good reliever when he initial debuted a few years ago, nonetheless his arm competence be toast. He’s fundamentally a throw-in, and maybe he develops into something same to what Daniel Winkler is to a Braves right now (potential, nonetheless not reliability). It’s another choice to have; he’d be improved as a lefty nonetheless c’est la vie.
The $15 million has to do with a personal gift of mine: Jack Zduriencik gave Seager his extension, that enclosed a strait that his end-of-contract $15 million group choice vests if he’s traded. As we didn’t determine to take a weight for that extension, we wanted a Mariners to cover it.
The understanding kind of sat in that demeanour for a while. The Mariners balked during including cash, and eventually we schooled that a hold-up was given a Mariners were watchful to find a refuge vital joining 3B before matching to a deal. we suspicion they were going for Mike Moustakas, nonetheless he went to a Yankees. In a march of this, we was substantially a unequivocally irritating email compatriot (no 2,000-word content messages, though) given we unequivocally wanted this understanding to go through, and while we initial wanted some kind of additional lapse if a Mariners weren’t including $15M to go with Seager, if usually a many improved reliever in place of Zych, we eventually gave up, generally once a Matt Kemp income was privileged (which was not a box when we initial asked about Seager, nonetheless was a box prolonged before we finalized a Seager deal). In a end, we resolved to do a understanding with no cash.
On a over-abundance value level, a income is indeed unequivocally important. Seager is due $89.5 million over a subsequent 5 seasons. If we figure that he is a 4-win player, nonetheless declines by 0.5 WAR any year given he is in his 30s already, he’s 4+3.5+3+2.5+2 = 15 wins of production, total. At $8M a win, that’s usually $30.5M of over-abundance value, so a $15M is indeed a outrageous cube (a 50% infusion) to a over-abundance value Seager provides. At $7M a win, a $15M is indeed equal to a over-abundance value on his deal. Of course, this assumes a solid decline, and assumes Seager starts during 4 wins in 2018. If Seager starts a bit lower, declines faster, or if he starts higher/declines slower, a contours change.
Of course, a understanding isn’t usually for Seager, it’s stuff for Seager. And a things was voted to be twin tip 10 prospects according to a TC village awaiting list. If Maitan is a tip 50 MLB prospect, his value can be same to $38M. If Wentz is a tip 100 MLB prospect, his value can be same to $16M. Together, those guys yield $54M. My own, regressive discerning math suggested that Seager would be value some-more like 16.5 wins over 5 years (again, not IWAG, usually to clarify), suggesting about $42.5M in over-abundance value during $8M per win. That means that there’s a bit of a bath there as distant as over-abundance value, nonetheless not a outrageous one. (Prospect risk contra non-prospect risk leads me to supplement a 10%-20% markup on a over-abundance value of non-prospects, and $42.5 x 1.2 is still brief of about $54M.) But, if we cruise that Maitan and/or Wentz are overrated (and again, rajah was unequivocally convincing here, we thought), it looks better.
I don’t unequivocally have any clever feelings about Maitan and Wentz myself. They’re prospects. They’re distant away. The Braves can wait on them to develop, nonetheless what happens in a interim? we suspicion Kyle Seager was a right male to take a group from a probable .500ish turn to a probable playoff level. I’d unequivocally compensate for that, and we did. Maybe we wouldn’t, nonetheless afterwards we should ask yourself: what prospects would we deal, and when, to get your group into playoff position? That answer will vary, nonetheless it’s not going to be universal. I’d cite a Braves to follow a matching mode of meditative as me — there are times when these moves make sense, and times when they don’t, like a final twin years; we don’t know if they will.
A few disproportion on Kyle Seager. Seager is unequivocally interesting, in that he’s flattering consistent. He both hits good and fields well. He’s not a beast during a image (116 career wRC+), nonetheless he has a fly ball-heavy proceed that is tasty both in ubiquitous right now, and given a contours of SunTrust Park’s right field. Cheap homers are still homers. When he’s patient, he walks a lot. He was unequivocally studious in 2016, and that calm persisted into 2017; a downside was that he swung by a lot some-more pitches in 2017. If that’s age and bat speed display adult unequivocally soon, we could have a critical emanate on a hands. But, we cruise a accessible proportions of a Braves’ home park will assistance with some of that, and there’s a fact that his categorical dump in efficacy came opposite a sinker, not a four-seamer, and was potentially a outcome of a highly-exaggerated proceed that attempted to uppercut all (which would indeed have a unpropitious outcome when we face sinkers). Seager indeed lowered his soothing strike rate final year, and we trust he was an xwOBA underperformer, so concerns about his evident destiny opening competence be overblown. He’s a decent contestant who should not see outrageous decrease of invulnerability during third base, and has sum some-more energy as he’s aged nonetheless any genuine wreckage to contact. I’d be unequivocally vehement to watch Kyle Seager on a Braves.
Rajah: we knew before a sim that we was peaceful to understanding Maitan if a right understanding came along. The upside is huge, nonetheless we tend to onslaught to grasp a contingency on prospects like him. That meant someone was expected to overpay. Similarly, Wentz is a sell-high opportunity. He has a and change-up and pitchability, and pitchers like that always give low-A hitters trouble. If a pitcher doesn’t have many else, though, he’ll onslaught in a aloft levels. Scouts are doubt his fastball, his violation ball, and possibly he can be projected to supplement some-more quickness notwithstanding his high height. There’s substantial risk there that doesn’t uncover adult in stat-line-scouting.
Siegeface: This competence be a one understanding finished by us that involves a Braves presumably losing a bit of over-abundance value. Kyle Seager’s a 3-4 fWAR actor due about $18.5MM per year over a subsequent 4 years (plus a $15MM fifth year choice that has now vested), and he’s 30 years old. Factoring in age associated decline, best box he’s substantially violation even in terms of over-abundance value with a awaiting package we motionless to partial with. As such, creatively we were usually assured giving adult Maitan alone or indispensable a $15MM to embody Wentz in a deal. However, after we liberated adult a twin misfortune contracts on a team, and identified Seager as a square that could make a 2018 sim Braves a contender, we motionless we could take a tiny strike and take a understanding that a Mariners’ GM wanted. As for how we came to confirm on charity Maitan+Wentz, rajah was unequivocally a indicate on advocating that prospects to include, nonetheless we all resolved early on in a sim that Maitan was a best trade chip given a impassioned risk in his form during a moment.
Rajah: As Ivan said, a Seattle GM came in seeking Maitan and Wentz. we usually had to convince a guys that Wentz was ok to include. Later, we advocated dropping a $15M direct for a reasons Siegeface settled and a fact that in a sim a income over 2018 is unequivocally usually not all that important.
BravesRays: Ivan and Siegeface did a consummate pursuit deliberating a over-abundance value considerations in a Seager signing, so we don’t have many to supplement there. we would like to review a Seager understanding to a choice of signing Mike Moustakas, who sealed for 5/$75 in a sim. Would a Braves would have been improved off signing Moose and forgoing a Seager deal? That is, would a Braves be improved off with Moose during 5/$75, Maitan, and Wentz than with Corey’s Brother during 4/$74.5? I’ve resolved that a Seager understanding was a improved play.
Using a customary aging bend and any player’s 2018 Depth Chart projection, we come out with Seager on his agreement carrying roughly $13 million some-more in over-abundance than Mike Moustakas on his feign understanding in a sim. I’m presumption that Seager’s fifth year bar choice is not exercised by a Braves. [Even nonetheless it has to be, given foolish Jack Z’s foolish stupid. Note, however, that this doesn’t entirely change a calculus. That choice is usually for $15M, so Seager still comes out brazen unless he’s radically deputy level.]
Are Maitan and Wentz value some-more than that as prospects? Yes, clearly. However, a sensitivity of their value is many larger than a sensitivity of a disproportion in prolongation between Moose and Seager. In other words, there’s some certainty in a finish that Seager will be a significantly improved and some-more profitable on his understanding than that Moose will be on his, nonetheless a operation of outcomes for Wentz and Maitan are distant some-more variable, and so their value comes with some-more risk attached.
Also, there’s a Braves position on a win bend to consider. The half-win or so some-more that Seager is projected to yield over a subsequent 4 seasons has genuine value for a group that competence be on a fork of a playoffs some-more than once over that time period.
Furthermore, there’s some reason to cruise Moustakas’ 2017 opening was reduction demonstrative of his talent going brazen than Seager’s. First of all, Moose and Seager had scarcely matching xwOBA’s on strike in 2017 (.378 and .375, respectively). However, their tangible wOBAs on strike were many over detached (.399 for Moose and .362 for Seager). This is a good denote that Moustakas had many improved happening on batted balls than Seager. This finish is also upheld by a fact that Seager had a four-year-low HR/FB rate of 11.2%, while Moose’s HR/FB rate of scarcely 18% was 8% improved than his career average. Seager sum a career-high flyball rate in 2017 with a career low pop-up rate. That’s not an easy pretence to lift off. Moose popped adult 3 times some-more mostly than Seager while attack flyballs 6% reduction often. Seager had a career low line-drive rate in 2017 (line-drive rate is a many flighty of a batted turn rates from year to year), while Moose’s was rather improved than his career norms. Seager chased pitches out of a section during a career-low rate of 24%, while Moose chased pitches out of a section during a career-high 40% (!) rate. Seager even had a aloft tough strike rate than Moose (36% to 32%). You put all of this together, and for me a finish is clear. Seager’s routine as a hitter in 2017 was distant higher to Moose’s, who hacked during everything, popped adult a lot, and was saved by some good happening when he connected. I’d design Seager to be a improved hitter in 2018, and there seems to be a genuine possibility that Moose’s offense craters, if not subsequent year, afterwards someday in a subsequent few years.
A final indicate in Seager’s preference is that notwithstanding Moose being a year younger, Seager’s ability set competence age better. Seager is a improved contestant than Moose, whose normal Speed Score of 1.2 over a past twin seasons means that he’s painfully slow, reflected in a scarcely 5 runs he gave divided on a bases final year. Seager’s not a good baserunner, nonetheless he’s not a bad one, presumably (more like rather subsequent average). Moose posted career-low defensive metrics in 2017, rating as a below-average defender by UZR and DRS for a initial time in his career. Seager was roughly normal by DRS and good above normal by UZR. In other words, Moose is starting to demeanour some-more like an aged actor who doesn’t pierce around good than Seager. Even Moose’s descent ability set, that is rarely contingent on harvesting power, has begun to demeanour like one we tend to see among aging players.
The choice to make a Seager understanding or pointer Moose during 7/$75 wasn’t presented to us as such in a sim. We didn’t know what Moose’s final agreement would be, or if it would go too high for us to be comfortable. Nor did we know possibly Seattle’s GM would determine to a Seager understanding for many of a time that teams were behest on Moose. Still, given a choice, we would have come down on a side of appropriation Seager. I’m some-more assured in his ability to continue producing as an above-average actor over a subsequent 4 years. The projections have Seager and Moose many closer than we do. Moose has several red flags. we can’t find any for Seager.
This understanding was sincerely teenager in a grand intrigue of things, nonetheless I’m vehement to get a toolsy male who backstops a intensity to drain value on a infield.I don’t cruise that Lin is unequivocally going to be a peculiarity hitter nonetheless a lot some-more development, nonetheless my categorical criteria seems to be that he can penetrate it defensively. If he can male brief unequivocally well, that’s a good handcuff-to-a-handcuff (Johan Camargo), and gives a Braves a good choice that hits from a left side to use as a 25th or 26th male to spell Albies and Swanson, and mix with Camargo (who has strike lefties much, many improved than righties so far) on a short-term replacement platoon.
I’m not certain Dickey was any kind of alleviation on any pitching container a sim-Braves will use this year. As a knuckleballer, he’s usually distant too flighty to predict. While a same can be loyal of any of a immature pitchers that consecrate a rotation, I’d rather have Lin’s team-controlled career and a $8 million than Dickey’s chronicle of that volatility.
We substantially could have finished another similar-tiered Red Sox awaiting work here as well, so censure me if we didn’t get your favorite in lieu of Lin.
Rajah: This news on Lin was a pulling force behind picking him from a list a Sox gave us. He also featured in Carson Cistulli’s Fringe Five news several times and was mentioned in https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-matt-carpenters-of-the-minor-leagues/. So sufficient it to contend that a analytics universe has seen means for descent alleviation with Lin.
The proceed we see a application abyss with Camargo, Forsythe, and Lin is that we have twin guys in Camargo and Lin that have choice years, so we have coherence to accumulate one of them (probably Lin) in a minors for partial of a year and use them to cover a unavoidable injuries that will come up.
Siegeface: we reason a awaiting analysis guys during Fangraphs in unequivocally high regard, utterly Eric Longenhagen. So when Ivan pronounced a Red Sox were meddlesome in Dickey, we asked him to find out if Tzu-Wei Lin was available. Lin was a flattering decent defensive center infield awaiting for a Sox for many years, nonetheless gifted a bit of a dermatitis final year as a 23 year aged in AA by attack some-more fly balls. He sum some energy projection to his profile, and as a outcome was a decent tiny mid-season call adult for Boston. In standard Ivan fashion, he claimed to not even know who that chairman was. But he asked and found out that Lin was available. From there, we had extended talks about who we wanted from a list a Sox sent to us, as RA Dickey had unequivocally turn unessential as an word routine for a immature guys with a further of Mike Fiers as a swingman. In a end, we picked Lin given he was substantially a usually male who had scouts that believed he could form as something of a unchanging (albeit a low finish regular) in a bigs.
IF/OF Logan Forsythe, signed: $23.5 million, 3-year deal
The Logan Forsythe story is unequivocally kind of a Ian Happ story. Up by all a moves above, a sim-Braves had full-time starters during any position, twin shackles for Swanson’s intensity for downside, and a finish opposite in LF (Tapia), with another opposite with large intensity in RF (Ronald Acuna).
Negotiations with a Cubs had been on and off via a sim, initial around Mark Zagunis (one of my faves due to his travel rate, nonetheless I’m a bigger fan of that than we should be, perhaps) and afterwards around Ian Happ once it was transparent he was maybe on a block. we offering Kolby Allard, and we suspect, nonetheless have no proceed of knowing, that that was indeed a heading offer for a while, and maybe in total. In a end, a Cubs asked for both Allard and Anderson or Wentz (Wentz was already oral for), and that was usually ridiculously too high to even consider. Thinking we competence indeed get Happ for Allard sum some clarity to a roster: Happ, a switch-hitter, could do some kind of crew with Tapia and/or play a super-sub purpose all around a diamond. (I won’t plead a several concerns with Happ and Allard here, given this is about Forsythe, nonetheless sufficient to say, I’m not unequivocally smitten with, or bamboozled by, Happ’s unequivocally good 2017 numbers, and wouldn’t compensate a suitable prices for those if we all suspicion they were genuine and not a mirage.) In any case, they fell through, and we indispensable someone else to fill a Happ role.
Very luckily for a sim-Braves, a Dodgers had declined Logan Forsythe’s option. Why they did so, rather than usually throwing income during him and literally any other actor in existence, confuses me. Forsythe is a career 2.1 fWAR/600 actor who finished a 2.3 fWAR/600 deteriorate and is 30 years old. At worst, he’s a good dais guy, and that arrange of thing is unequivocally what we indispensable to turn out a roster. (At best, he’s a legitimate starter in his possess right, and given that he traditionally pounds lefties, he’s a smashing crew partner that can fill in everywhere.)
We potentially could have sealed Forsythe for less, nonetheless genuine life (work issues) were removing in a way, so we usually offering a bit some-more to tighten it down to start with. The AAV of this understanding is underneath $8 million, so it’s unequivocally kind of a discount unless we cruise he’s going to renovate from an normal unchanging to an normal dais actor flattering quickly. There were other options here, nonetheless Forsythe finished a many clarity given his crew splits. Lots of accessible players could have filled this role, nonetheless whichever of my compatriots beheld Forsythe and suggested him acted brilliantly in that moment.
Siegeface: IIRC, Ivan got on a horn with Max Rieper, who runs a SB Nation GM make-believe and handles a giveaway representative bidding, right before a window sealed on Logan Forsythe. After skeleton to acquire Ian Happ fell through, Forsythe was identified by a integrate of us as a good choice to Happ. We indispensable someone that could feasibly play a dilemma if Tapia indispensable a crew partner, as good as an word routine for a center infield if presumably Albies or Swanson gets harm or bombs out in 2018. Forsythe fits all of those criteria, and he can fill in during 3B or 1B if something happens to Freeman or Seager. 3 years/$23.5MM is copiousness satisfactory value for Logan Forsythe, and we were some-more than peaceful to compensate that cost to fill out a dais with a playoff size super application guy.
BravesRays: Had we dumped Kemp and sum Tapia before a sim began, a male like Howie Kendrick, who sealed for 1/$6.5 substantially would have been a improved choice to Frosty, nonetheless by a time we dumped Kemp — that we didn’t design would occur nonetheless holding a awaiting bath, something that 0 of us were peaceful to do — many of a giveaway agents had already signed. [Howie Kendrick would indeed have been a good choice, and one that never occurred to me. This is given we should work in teams, people.]
Frosty was one of a final decent players around when we were behest for him, that competence have driven adult his cost adult a bit. As a Rays fan, we like Frosty. He mashes lefties, and a Braves could use that in a line-up. we like him to be roughly in a 2 WAR actor in 450 PAs or so. His xwOBA on strike this year was .363, improved than it was in his dermatitis 2015 deteriorate and about 30 points improved than his tangible wOBA on strike in 2017. Also, there weren’t a lot of red flags in his descent form (his BB/K rate was a best of his career).
He can substantially play an excusable LF, nonetheless I’d be some-more certain of that if he had a bit some-more footspeed. Between Tapia, Forsythe, and Lane Adams, a Braves substantially have adequate “spaghetti opposite a wall” in left margin that something will stick, even nonetheless any of them lift some uncertainty.
Stuff that we discussed, that didn’t happen
A lot of conversations were had, both internally and with other GMs, about things that never came to fruition. we owe a debt to rajah for remembering and cataloging this, given my take on a lot of things that didn’t come to delight was usually to pierce on and not unequivocally record it divided for after use or remembrance.
- We batted around many ideas for a platoon/fourth outfielder candidate, including Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jason Kipnis, Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, Giancarlo Stanton, everybody on a Cardinals, Jurickson Profar, Willie Calhoun, Delino DeShields, Jr., Ian Happ, etc. Some of these got to a “reach out” stage, including Kipnis and Calhoun. Happ seemed to be one where there was a many mutual seductiveness (Calhoun was dealt by a time we inquired), we didn’t hear behind on some others, and a cost for Happ finished adult being proceed too high.
- We unequivocally wanted to dump Matt Adams on a Rays, and had Jake Odorizzi as a probable aim to promote a swap. There was 0 seductiveness during a commencement of a sim on their part, and 0 during a end. There was also 0 seductiveness on their partial in a Chris Archer trade, that we directed for during a unequivocally finish given we had prospects and income space to spare.
- At one point, a Diamondbacks asked us about Dustin Peterson, that was kind of weird, because, really, Dustin Peterson? We were peaceful to perform flattering many anything on that front, and never listened back.
- Rajah floated a suspicion of a Twins center infielder, e.g., Jorge Polanco, as Swanson insurance. we cruise it would’ve been fine, we usually wasn’t unequivocally smitten with relocating stuff for word that we didn’t cruise had good upside.
- We also attempted to pierce Adams to a Rockies towards a end, when they voiced interest, nonetheless my work report got in a proceed again, as they instead pulled off a understanding for Justin Bour. We substantially could have changed Adams had we been quicker to a punch. Peter Lambert and Colton Welker were a names rajah had in mind in an Adams swap. We after attempted relocating Adams to a Rays for something like Josh Lowe, Garrett Whitley, or Adrian Rondon (whom rajah describes as “lottery tickets”), nonetheless they got a 1B claimant from elsewhere.
- There were discussions with a Athletics about Matt Joyce, given we know we adore Matt Joyce. Unfortunately a cost was distant too high (a la Christian Pache), and instead a “negotiations” grown into a rarely beguiling vaudeville where we discussed trade Drew Waters for Athletics GM David Forst. And afterwards perplexing to entice presumably sim-David Forst or a genuine David Forst into a Slack channel. As rajah points out, this indeed had a fashion given a Red Sox perceived remuneration for Theo Epstein relocating to Chicago, in a form of Chris Carpenter (not that one), a four-A pitcher with 0 genuine of note other than being partial of this trade. Would we trade an Akeel Morris, a Caleb Dirks, a Matt Wisler for a targeted GM upgrade? we would.
- Boston’s offer for Dickey gave us a accumulation of choices, including (rajah’s explanation on any in parentheses) Bryce Brentz (4A male during this point), CJ Chatham (meh), Bobby Dalbec (meh), Aneurys Tavarez (meh), Cole Brannen (toolsy 2017 second rounder in a Drew Waters vein), Marco Hernandez, or Lin. The latter twin are application infielders. Per rajah, he found Brannen interesting, nonetheless we wanted a bit of a fetter for a infield, and Lin came with both seductiveness and group control. Hernandez seems to maybe have a improved arm nonetheless he’s comparison and hasn’t shown a same changes to start elevating a turn like Lin, so eh.
- After a Happ-for-Allard understanding grew out of control, we had to go behind to demeanour during a OF marketplace to find a partner for Tapia. We batted around ideas on Jason Kipnis (a income dump harder to make work now that Kemp wasn’t on a roster), Wil Myers, Jose Bautista, Cameron Maybin, Logan Forsythe, and Delino DeShields, Jr. we favourite Forsythe a best given of his gusto of mashing lefties, and a fact that he was not that aged (like Bautista), not indispensably nonetheless in decline, and wouldn’t engage long negotiations to acquire. Forysthe also jumped out during us given he could fill a matching purpose to Happ, given some of a other options were particularly outfielders.
- At a unequivocally end, we attempted to emporium Camargo, Matt Adams, and Jim Johnson (including full salaries for a latter twin if we could get anything), nonetheless many of a sim activity took place good before Wednesday, and as such, there were no takers. Rajah also finished a good indicate that a late-in-the-sim lapse for Camargo and Jim Johnson substantially wouldn’t be of any seductiveness to anyone, nonetheless we don’t cruise we got a singular call presumably way.
- I did perform a suspicion of removing Martin Prado behind here and there, nonetheless his agreement is indeed flattering toilsome (something like $28M over a subsequent twin years), and he had changed to a opposite bar by a time income was reduction of an issue. we did, however, write a haiku as a response to a Prado-for-Markakis swap, so that was a prominence of a sim for me.
- We had some discussions with a Cubs around Victor Caratini and teenager joining third baseman Jason Vosler, nonetheless we had flattering many 0 seductiveness in a latter and a Cubs never cumulative a opposite backup catcher, creation it tough to trade for Caratini. Caratini would also be blocked by Flowers and Gomes, with Alex Jackson potentially on his heels as well.
Siegeface: we do cruise it deserves discuss that towards a finish of a sim we were unequivocally pulling tough to get Chris Archer. This wasn’t unequivocally a picturesque suspicion during a commencement of a sim, when we had a lot of passed income and no good options during 3B or LF. But after we miraculously finished some poignant improvements to a lineup (and a budget) nonetheless sacrificing anyone in a tip 5 of a awaiting list, it became possibly to cruise putting together a critical offer for a tip of a revolution guy. Alas, a Rays GM kept perplexing to lift Jake Odorizzi, who as we competence know is not Chris Archer. Archer was not for sale. Furthermore, one of a bittersweet issues of a accomplishments slicing a passed weight of Kempkakis meant we had a ton of income accessible to spend, nonetheless given it was liberated adult towards a finish of a sim we had no one unequivocally to spend it on. So we were stranded in a position where we had $18MM of payroll and an chosen turn awaiting package, nonetheless no one to unequivocally go get with it. C’est la vie.
BravesRays: After a sim we talked to a Rays GM about a intensity Archer deal. He was set on gripping a Rays competitive, so even a package of Austin Riley, Kolby Allard, one of Max Fried/Touki Touissaint, one of Brett Cumberland/Abrahan Gutierrez/Drew Waters, and $17 million substantially wouldn’t have been adequate to get Archer. In other words, we never unequivocally had a possibility during him.
Rajah: We maybe haven’t overwhelmed on any contention that we had in what amounts to about a 65 hour exercise, nonetheless in sum we’ve come flattering close. we cruise a formula this year are amazing. Maybe we got unequivocally propitious with some of a proposals that other teams happened to make to us, and maybe a biggest success was carrying a patience to not harm ourselves many of a time, nonetheless during any rate I’d be utterly happy if a genuine Braves did something like this.
Siegeface: we would put adult a formula this year with any of a other GMs in a sim, and if a 2018 Braves were means to lift this off in genuine life I’d be ecstatic. We traded divided all of a bad contracts, filled in a voids of a lineup and bullpen with imminently able options, and didn’t have to give adult a singular awaiting above Single-A Ball. This is a playoff group as now constructed, and there’s copiousness of assistance on a proceed in a minors.