CLEVELAND, Ohio — Is it safer to collect someone other than a quarterback during No. 1 in a NFL Draft?
The apparent answer is, “It depends what quarterbacks are available.”
I checked a final 20 years of drafts, and here is what happened to non-quarterbacks who were a tip picks:
1996: Keyshawn Johnson picked by a New York Jets. He done 3 Pro Bowls, held 814 passes. He was an glorious receiver for years.
1997: Orlando Pace picked by a Rams. The Ohio State product was comparison to a Hall of Fame in 2016 since of his good play as a left tackle.
2000: Courtney Brown picked by a Browns. Browns fans know a story of a defensive finish from Penn State. He had decent rookie year. Major injuries followed, including microfracture knee surgery. He had 4.5 sacks in his initial 5 games of 2001 before pang his initial large knee injury. He played 60 games in 6 years, never was a same after that initial knee problem.
2006: Mario Williams picked by Houston. He has done 4 Pro Bowls. He was a really good pass rusher from 2006-14.
2008: Jake Long picked by Miami. The left tackle done 4 Pro Bowls in his initial 4 seasons. But vital injuries began in 2012. His career strike a wall after that.
2013: Eric Fisher picked by Kansas City. The left tackle has not done a Pro Bowl. He had a delayed start to his career though has grown into a good starter. The Chiefs re-signed him to a four-year, $48 million prolongation in 2016. At that point, he was a highest-paid descent lineman in a NFL.
2014: Jadeveon Clowney picked by Houston. He done a 2016 Pro Bowl. He had knee problems as a rookie, starting usually dual games. It wasn’t until 2016 that he began to uncover since a Texans done him a tip pick. He done second-team All-NFL by Associated Press. He’s usually 24, so some-more good things should be entrance if he stays healthy.
What’s a point?
1. Five of a 7 non-quarterbacks picked during tip of a breeze have done Pro Bowls.
2. Fisher was a tip collect in a awful 2013 draft. At slightest he is a viable starter and has been rewarded with a agreement extension. Six of a tip 10 picks in 2013 are with opposite teams, including Browns preference of Barkevious Mingo. No. 2 collect Luke Joeckel has had vital knee problems. No. 3 collect Dion Jordan has been a calamity with suspensions, etc.
3. Besides Fisher, a other tip collect not to make a Pro Bowl was Courtney Brown.
4. This information creates a clever box for Myles Garrett being a safest pierce during a tip of a draft. That’s generally loyal since a defensive finish from Texas AM is noticed as a accord best actor in a breeze by a infancy of breeze experts. This is not like 2013, when no one was generally certain who to take during No. 1.
SKIPPING A QUARTERBACK AT NO. 1
In 2014 (Clowney), a tip 3 quarterbacks picked were Blake Bortles (No. 3, Jacksonville), Johnny Manziel (No. 22, Browns) and Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32, Minnesota). Browns fans know a Manziel story. Bortles is struggling as a starter with Jacksonville. Bridgewater showed guarantee as a starter until pang a vital knee damage final season.
In 2013 (Eric Fisher), a tip 3 quarterbacks picked were E.J. Manuel (No. 16, Buffalo), Geno Smith (No. 39, Jets) and Mike Glennon (No. 73, Tampa Bay). Nothing special there.
In 2008 (Jake Long), a tip 3 quarterbacks picked were Matt Ryan (No. 3, Atlanta), Joe Flacco (No. 18, Baltimore) and Brian Brohm (No. 56, Packers). Ryan and Flacco have left to Super Bowls. Both are franchise-type quarterbacks.
In 2006 (Mario Williams), a tip 3 quarterbacks picked were Vince Young (No. 3, Tennessee), Matt Leinart (No. 10, Arizona) and Jay Cutler (No. 11, Denver). Cutler has been a long-term starter, though generally really average.
In 2000 (Courtney Brown), a tip 3 quarterbacks picked were Chad Pennington (No. 18, Jets), Giovanni Carmazzi (No. 65, San Francisco) and Chris Redman (No. 75, Baltimore). Pennington was a decent starter. The others are really forgettable.
In 1997 (Orlando Pace), a tip 3 quarterbacks picked were Jim Druckenmiller (No. 26, San Francisco) Jake Plummer (No. 42, Arizona) and Danny Wuerffel (No, 99, Saints). That was a quarterback disaster.
In 1996 (Keyshawn Johnson), a tip 3 quarterbacks picked were Tony Banks (No. 42, Rams), Bobby Hoying (No. 85, Philadelphia) and Jeff Lewis (No. 100, Denver). No starters there.
Bottom line: The large skip was in 2008 where Ryan and Flacco would substantially now be deliberate a tip players in that breeze since of a significance of a position. In 2014, Derek Carr (No. 36, Oakland) has emerged as a best quarterback in that draft. You can find some other quarterbacks low in several drafts. But in general, skipping a quarterback during No. 1 has worked out for many teams who did so in a final 20 years.
1. It’s taken me a while to decide, though I’m fasten a container of those who consider Mitch Trubisky is a best quarterback in this draft. That said, it would be a large mistake for a Browns to make him a No. 1 pick. I’m in a “Don’t consider about it, breeze Myles Garrett” camp.
2. Trubisky has genuine intensity as a pro quarterback. He moves good in a slot and he’s a means athlete. His arm strength is not great, though good enough. He threw usually 6 interceptions in 446 passes final season, counting dual in a Sun Bowl. Bouncing behind from dual interceptions in that diversion to finish in a fourth entertain was impressive. He knew a lot was during interest with all pro scouts watching.
3. But he played in a shotgun, a spread-type offenses. He is going to need time to adjust to a pro game. Carson Wentz was severely aided by personification in a pro-style offense during North Dakota State, where he took snaps underneath core in 2015. No. 2 collect Wentz had a outrageous advantage over No. 1 collect Jared Goff, who played in a uncomplicated offense during California.
4. we can see since many scouts trust Tribusky will be taken in a tip 10. In my mind, he stands out from a other quarterbacks. He finished 68 percent of his passes. For his sake, we wish he doesn’t have to start Day One in a NFL on a bad team.
5. Some breeze analysts adore Patrick Mahomes since he is jaunty with a rocket arm. But as breeze consultant Dane Brugler wrote: “Mahomes is a giveaway thrower who looks like he’s personification backyard football, relying some-more on time and feel than mechanics and structure … he is nowhere nearby prepared for NFL snaps.”
6. But we have talked to some NFL people who like Mahomes since of a talent. He was a Big 12 Scholar Athlete of a Year as a selling major. we have vital doubts, others are really intrigued.
7. we kind of like Pitt’s Nathan Peterman, though he is some-more like a Cody Kessler-type quarterback. Doesn’t fit with Browns.
8. DeShone Kizer physically looks like an NFL quarterback during 6-foot-4. 233 pounds. He had a calamity year during Notre Dame. Like many quarterbacks in this draft, it’s so easy to make a box opposite him being a success in a NFL. But he was deliberate a tip awaiting in 2015, afterwards regressed. we wondered if he can lapse to that 2015 form with a right coach.
9. Deshaun Watson was a big-time actor in a powerhouse Clemson module who looked his best opposite Alabama in dual inhabitant pretension games. Hard to boot that, even if he runs around a lot and doesn’t have good arm strength. He had a 32-3 record as a starter during Clemson. Throwing from a slot is not his strength. Nor did he play in a pro offense.
10. Before a NCAA pretension game, I done a Plain Dealer video where we compared Watson to Dak Prescott. Part of what done Prescott was being surrounded by all a talent in Dallas. Then he was intelligent adequate and had a correct intrepidity and care to thrive. Perhaps Watson can do a same. Out of this group, Trubisky seems a many NFL-ready passer.